Daily OSINT Briefing System

Mozambique Intelligence Dashboard

Date: Wednesday, 22 January 2026 | Period: 21 Jan 2026 0600 CAT - 22 Jan 2026 0600 CAT | Classification: UNCLASSIFIED // OSINT
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Executive Summary

Sample

Insurgent activity in Cabo Delgado intensified overnight with a confirmed attack on Quissanga District that displaced an estimated 2,000 civilians. Rwandan forces reported an engagement near Mocimboa da Praia with claimed militant casualties, unverified. In Maputo, civil society groups announced Friday demonstrations after fuel price increases, raising risk of unrest. Tropical Depression 08 in the Mozambique Channel bears monitoring for possible Sofala landfall later this week.

Brief Snapshot

Topline pulse
4
Priority items
Cabo Delgado
Highest threat (CRITICAL)
2
Security alerts
3
Environmental watch

Key Alerts

What matters now
Cabo Delgado: Attack displaces 2,000+ in Quissanga District
Security
Quissanga District, 80 km north of Pemba21 Jan 2026 0200 local
So what: Geographic expansion beyond Macomia suggests wider reach. IDP flows into Pemba will strain humanitarian capacity.
Likely (82%)
Cabo Delgado: Rwandan forces claim 12 militants killed
Security
Northwest of Mocimboa da Praia, Palma District21 Jan 2026
So what: If accurate, pressure remains on logistics corridors along the Afungi to Mocimboa axis. Independent confirmation pending.
Possible (65%)
Maputo: Civil society plans protests over fuel prices
Political
Praca da Independencia, central MaputoPlanned for 24 Jan 2026 1000 local
So what: Protests in central Maputo could mirror October 2024 clashes. Avoid downtown corridors 0900 to 1400 Friday.
Confirmed (90%)

Threat Levels

Last 24 hours
RegionLevelTrendKey Driver
Cabo DelgadoCRITICALRISINGQuissanga attack, displacement surge
NampulaHIGHSTEADYSpillover risk persists, no new incidents
MaputoELEVATEDRISINGPlanned protests, fuel price tension
Central ProvincesGUARDEDSTEADYWeather watch, no security incidents

Priority Filters

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Priority Intelligence

Implications first
Cabo Delgado: Attack displaces 2,000+ in Quissanga District
Quissanga District, 80 km north of Pemba21 Jan 2026 0200 local
SecurityLikely 82%
So what: Geographic expansion beyond Macomia suggests wider reach. IDP flows into Pemba will strain humanitarian capacity.
Details
What happened: ISM militants attacked Namaluco, Bilibiza, and Mahate, burning homes and a health post.
Impact: 4 confirmed civilian deaths, 2,000+ displaced, 150 structures burned.
Sources: Zitamar, Cabo Ligado, OCHA
Confidence: Likely (82%)
Cabo Delgado: Rwandan forces claim 12 militants killed
Northwest of Mocimboa da Praia, Palma District21 Jan 2026
SecurityPossible 65%
So what: If accurate, pressure remains on logistics corridors along the Afungi to Mocimboa axis. Independent confirmation pending.
Details
What happened: RDF stated a joint patrol engaged ISM fighters and seized small arms. No RDF casualties reported.
Impact: 12 militants killed claimed; weapons seized.
Sources: RDF statement, Club of Mozambique, Mediafax
Confidence: Possible (65%)
Maputo: Civil society plans protests over fuel prices
Praca da Independencia, central MaputoPlanned for 24 Jan 2026 1000 local
PoliticalConfirmed 90%
So what: Protests in central Maputo could mirror October 2024 clashes. Avoid downtown corridors 0900 to 1400 Friday.
Details
What happened: FONGA announced peaceful demonstrations after a 12 percent fuel price increase.
Impact: Likely traffic disruption and elevated police presence.
Sources: Carta de Mozambique, O Pais, VOA Portugues
Confidence: Confirmed (90%)
Environmental: Tropical Depression 08 tracking toward Sofala
Mozambique Channel, 500 km east of Beira25-27 Jan forecast window
EnvironmentalLikely 85%
So what: Initiate weather contingency planning for central province operations and monitor track updates every 12 hours.
Details
What happened: Forecast models show intensification to tropical storm status within 48 hours.
Impact: Possible landfall and flood risk for Beira and coastal districts.
Sources: GDACS, INAM, Tropical Tidbits
Confidence: Likely (85%)

Environmental Watch

48-72 hour window
Active weather threat: Tropical Depression 08 in the Mozambique Channel with possible Sofala landfall.
Current conditions: Maputo 31C partly cloudy, Pemba 29C scattered showers, Beira 32C overcast, Nampula 28C partly cloudy.
Infrastructure impact: No weather disruptions reported. N380 passable but degraded.

Political and Economic

Maputo focus

Fuel price increases remain the dominant political issue after a 12 percent gasoline hike on 20 January. Renamo condemned the move and hinted at supporting Friday protests. TotalEnergies and the presidency held security benchmark talks on LNG restart timing, with no official timeline announced.

Signals and Early Warnings

Unverified items separated
Unverified militant movement in Chiure District
Telegram reporting of unusual militant movement overnight. No corroboration.
Confidence: Rumor (45%)
Police water cannon vehicles spotted in Maputo
Social media posts show equipment near central Maputo. Could be pre-positioning.
Confidence: Unverified (50%)
Local radio reports tension in Memba District
Rumors of insurgent presence with no incidents reported.
Confidence: Possible (55%)

72 Hour Outlook

Forward watch items
  1. Maputo protests on 24 Jan remain the highest near-term civil unrest risk.
  2. Tropical Depression 08 track updates critical over the next 48 hours.
  3. Quissanga displacement flows may strain Pemba humanitarian response.
  4. Cabo Ligado weekly update expected to clarify recent claims.

Sources Consulted

Tiered by reliability
ACLED / Cabo Ligado
Tier 1
Zitamar News
Tier 1
UN OCHA Mozambique
Tier 1
Carta de Mozambique
Tier 2
O Pais
Tier 2
VOA Portugues
Tier 2
Mediafax
Tier 2
GDACS
Tier 1
INAM
Tier 1
Tropical Tidbits
Tier 2